How Do You Spell Election Success? N-P-A
Monty Brewster had a problem. If you remember the 1985 film Brewster’s Millions, a minor league baseball pitcher (played by Richard Pryor) was surprised to learn a distant relative had died and left him $300 million. But there was a catch: In order to receive the inheritance, Brewster had to spend $30 million in 30 days — or else he would receive nothing.
Despite unloading his new-found riches in every way imaginable, Brewster made little headway. He still had too much money and not enough time. Then he discovered the surest way to burn through enormous amounts of cash. Brewster would run for political office — Mayor of New York City. He challenged two career politicians, urging voters not to choose him but to cast their ballots for another alternative: None of the Above.
I thought of that fictional election when I saw the official results from last week’s Jacksonville special City Council contest . While “None of the Above” was not on the ballot, voters who have made a none-of-the-above decision on political party affiliation were pivotal in the outcome. If the 2023 candidates for Mayor, City Council, Sheriff, or the other constitutional offices learn anything from this special election, they should memorize three letters: NPA.
No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters and other voters who have declined to affiliate with the Democratic or Republican parties comprise a major segment of the electorate. As of the latest statewide report (January 31, 2022), registered NPA and other non-major party voters made up 29% of the Florida voting population. Here in Jacksonville/Duval County as of today, NPA and other unaffiliated voters constitute 24% of all registered voters.
Unlike the State of Florida electoral process — which excludes NPA voters from primary elections which increasingly decide who serves in the Florida Legislature — the City of Jacksonville voting system maximizes opportunities for NPA participation. In our unitary model, all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation (or lack thereof). Unless any candidate receives a majority in the first election, the top two finishers advance to a second election. This system means NPA voters have the right to cast ballots in every election for Mayor, City Council, Sheriff, Supervisor of Elections, Property Appraiser, Tax Collector, and Clerk of Courts.
Nick Howland won the special City Council election for multiple reasons, but NPA and related voters were a meaningful factor. Let’s look at the February 22 election results to see why. 62,159 Republicans and 57,515 Democrats voted. NPA and third-party voters (e.g., Independent Party, Libertarian Party, Green Party) voters cast 13,279 ballots. The official results showed Republican Nick Howland with 68,620 votes and Democrat Tracye Polson with 64,139 votes.
Let’s assume for the sake of argument that a recent UNF poll was correct, and Republican voters supported Howland while Democratic voters cast their ballots for Polson. If Howland received 62,159 of his votes from Republicans, and Polson received 57,515 of her votes from Democrats, that means Howland’s other 6,461 votes and Polson’s remaining 6,624 votes came from NPA voters or third-party registrants. While a better Republican voter turnout helped Howland win, his victory was clinched when Polson was unable to erase the turnout deficit with more support from NPA and other voters.
With 12 months left before the first round of 2023 City of Jacksonville elections, candidates would be wise to analyze the special election results and align their campaign strategies accordingly. Since overall voter participation will likely be greater in March and May 2023 than it was in February 2022, NPA voters could have an even bigger impact next year. Prospective office holders should give these citizens special attention in at least three ways.
1. Prioritize Persuasion Along with Turnout
In our polarized political system, some electoral observers argue candidates should focus their efforts on base voter turnout — Democrats urging Democratic voters to cast ballots, and Republicans encouraging Republican voters to go to the polls. To be sure, voter turnout is vital and any campaign without a robust turnout operation is incomplete.
Yet turnout alone is not enough. Campaigns must invest time and resources to persuade swing voters — not just NPA and other party voters, but also Republicans and Democrats who are open to crossing party lines at the ballot box. Part of that effort involves talking to those citizens, either directly or through public opinion research, to find out what local government issues interest or concern them.
It also involves effective communications with those voters in both paid and earned media. As I have previously argued, television remains the most efficient medium to increase voter awareness in citywide elections — especially in Jacksonville, where our media market is especially efficient compared to other large Florida markets. Other forms of persuasion like direct mail or door-to-door canvassing may work better in district-based contests. But whatever the means of communication, a campaign that does not value turnout and persuasion is one that is likely to lose.
2. Focus on Issues that Voters Directly Connect to Local Government
While the medium matters, so does the message. Winning campaigns typically have a clear message that is communicated consistently and repeatedly. Since the vast majority of voters pay the closest attention to government when it directly affects their daily lives, candidates who focus on those most impactful governmental interactions are more likely to connect with the electorate generally and NPA voters specifically.
Though Nick Howland was rightly criticized for distorting Tracye Polson’s position on police funding, those misleading attacks were only part of a comprehensive strategy to make public safety the dominant campaign issue. Howland also highlighted endorsements from the current and past Sheriffs as well as the police and firefighter unions. The reason for that strategic imperative is not hard to discern: Citizens care about public safety and strongly associate that service with local government. In the recent UNF poll, voters identified crime as the most important problem facing Jacksonville.
(By the way, candidates looking for an example of unambiguous messaging on public safety funding should watch the 2022 State of the Union address. President Biden made his position unmistakably clear: “We should all agree: The answer is not to defund the police. It’s to fund the police. Fund them. Fund them. Fund them with resources and training.”)
Howland’s effort to make the contest about public safety also succeeded because another issue which could have become dominant never did. Waste collection is one of the most basic and visible ways the City of Jacksonville affects our lives. The September 2021 decision to suspend home recycling services proved to be controversial, especially since neighboring communities like Atlantic Beach and Jacksonville Beach have continued recycling. In fact, the UNF poll found that 83% of voters believed it was either “very important” (63%) or “somewhat important” (20%) for Jacksonville to restore curbside recycling. While Polson mentioned the issue, garbage collection was not the centerpiece of her campaign. By the time Mayor Curry announced on February 15 that curbside recycling would return, it was too late.
3. Don’t Paint Yourself Into Partisan Corners
At its best, local governing should not involve partisan politics. As the late New York City Mayor Fiorella LaGuardia reportedly said, “There is no Democratic or Republican way to clean the streets.” In that same way, there are no Democratic or Republican seats. Even if voters have previously preferred candidates of one party or the other, elected offices do not belong to anyone but citizens. Those citizens decide to whom they will entrust temporary occupation of those offices.
Since they have made the deliberate choice not to associate with Democrats or Republicans, NPA and other non-affiliated voters may be especially sensitive to suggestions that an office is assigned to a particular political party. Most local candidates on the 2023 ballot will have a D or R after their names, and it is perfectly fine for them to accept lawful support from or legally cooperate with their political parties. But candidates who make their campaigns too partisan may alienate NPA voters or members of other parties who might be willing to overlook party affiliation in their voting decisions.
“None of the Above” won that fictional New York mayoral election in Brewster’s Millions. If current trends hold, its real-life equivalent — voters who want none of the above political parties — will be similarly impactful in Jacksonville’s 2023 contests. Any candidate who does not recognize that reality may squander his or her own potential electoral fortune.
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Chris Hand is a government law attorney who served as Chief of Staff at the City of Jacksonville from 2011–2015. He previously co-authored America, the Owner’s Manual: You Can Fight City Hall — and Win and authored the 50th anniversary update to A Quiet Revolution: The Consolidation of Jacksonville-Duval County & the Dynamics of Urban Political Reform. He has been involved in local, state, and federal political campaigns.
